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Kazakhstan을 알려주마 Country Analysis Briefs

Summary: Kazakhstan Kazakhstan is important to world energy markets because it has significant oil and natural gas reserves As foreign investment pours into the country s oil and natural gas sectors the landlocked Central Asian state is beginning to realize its enormous production potential With sufficient export options Kazakhstan could become a major world energy producer and exporter over the next decade Note Information contained in this report is the best available as of November 2004 and is subject to change GENERAL BACKGROUND Kazakhstan has the Caspian Sea region s largest recoverable crude oil reserves and its production accounts for approximately two thirds of the roughly 1 5 million barrels per day bbl d currently being produced in the region including regional oil producers Kazakhstan Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan Accordingly Kazakhstan has Central Asia s largest economy Kazakhstan s nominal gross domestic product GDP grew by 20 in 2003 to $29 0 billion resulting in a per capita GDP of $1 500 roughly comparable to Guatemala and Jordan This marked only the fifth consecutive year of significant economic growth in Kazakhstan since its independence in 1991 Economic growth in recent years has been propelled by Kazakhstan s growing petroleum industry The oil sector comprises roughly 55 of the country s state budget revenues Several economic research efforts conducted in 2002 and 2003 highlighted the growing danger of possible over reliance on the oil sector with some analysts predicting that without more investment into the country s non oil sectors Kazakhstan s economic capacity will be strained by 2007 thus stifling growth in the next decade In an effort to reduce Kazakhstan s exposure to price fluctuations for energy and commodities exports the government created the National Fund of Kazakhstan As of the end of 2003 the National Fund held $3 6 billion Kazakhstan s President Nursultan Nazarbaev has been involved in Kazakhstan s national politics since 1977 when he served as Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Kazakhstan In April 1990 he became interim president of the newly independent Republic of Kazakhstan and was later elected to the post in the country s first national elections held in December 1991 Nazarbaev was re elected in 1999 after a 1995 referendum extended his term and will be up for reelection again in 2006 The Kazakh executive branch was re shuffled in June 2003 when then Prime Minister Imanghaliy Tasmaghambetov resigned from his position A new Prime Minister Daniyal Akmetov has been appointed along with a new cabinet including numerous holdovers from the previous administration Parliamentary elections were held in 2004 during which the party led by Dariga Nazarbaev the president s daughter won 11 of the vote Opposition parties have alleged authorities committed election fraud and one month after the elections were over the speaker of the parliament resigned because he accused the election of being manipulated OIL Kazakhstan sits near the northeast portion of the Caspian Sea and claims most of the Sea s biggest known oil fields Kazakhstan s combined onshore and offshore proven hydrocarbon reserves have been estimated between 9 and 17 6 billion barrels comparable to OPEC members Algeria on the low end and Qatar on the high end The country is no longer a minor world oil exporter as it was during the late 1990s and it is poised to become an even more significant player in world oil markets over the next decade Kazakhstan produced approximately 1 0 million barrels per day bbl d of oil in 2003 and consumed just 165 000 bbl d resulting in net exports of 865 000 bbl d Analysts press reports and the Kazakh government estimate summer 2004 production at around 1 19 1 28 million bbl day Markets for exported Kazakh oil are growing rapidly and current infrastructure helps deliver oil to world markets at the Black Sea via Russia and at the Persian Gulf via swaps with Iran as well as some additional traffic northward to Russia via pipeline and rail Between 1999 and 2003 Kazakhstan s oil production grew year on year by approximately 14 resulting in a doubling roughly of oil production since independence see Fig 1 Conversely other major economic indicators declined markedly during the decade since independence including GDP and the production and consumption of natural gas coal and electricity see below Increased oil production has been the result of an influx of foreign investment into Kazakhstan s oil sector International projects have taken the form of joint ventures with Kazmunaigaz formerly Kazakhoil the national oil company as well as production sharing agreements PSAs and exploration field concessions Independent analysts expect production levels of 4 million bbl d and the Kazakh government estimates production levels of around 8 million bbl d by 2020 Most of this growth will come from three enormous fields Tengiz Karachaganak and Kashagan In June 2003 the government of Kazakhstan announced a new Caspian Sea development program which called for new offshore blocks to be auctioned beginning in 2004 However in the last year the government has introduced new restrictions to new production sharing agreements PSAs First the government owned oil and gas company KazMunaiGaz will own at least half of any PSA and act as contractor in all offshore PSAs to be concluded in Kazakhstan Also the introduction of a new tax structure in January 2004 included a so called rent tax on exports a progressive tax that increases as oil prices grow The new amendment to Kazakhstan s tax law has raised the government s share of oil income to a range of 65 to 85 percent and it has removed a clause guaranteeing investors a static tax rate throughout the duration of the contract The new structure also includes an excess profit tax and a minimal governmental share of oil to be produced under new PSAs Tengiz The Tengiz field is located in the swamplands along the northeast shores of the Caspian Sea see Map 2 Recoverable crude oil reserves have been estimated at 6 9 billion barrels by consortium member ChevronTexaco Tengiz has been developed by the Tengizchevroil TCO joint venture ChevronTexaco 50 ExxonMobil 25 Kazmunaigaz 20 LukArco 5 since 1993 and in 2002 the consortium produced 290 000 bbl d or approximately 35 of Kazakhstan s daily production In January 2003 after contentious negotiations with the government of Kazakhstan the TCO consortium members initiated a $3 billion expansion project designed to boost production to approximately 450 000 bbl d by 2006 According to ChevronTexaco Tengiz could potentially produce 700 000 bbl d by the end of the decade Approximately 271 000 bbl d were sent from the Tengiz field through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium CPC project to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk see Map 2 Karachaganak The Karachaganak oil and gas condensate field is located onshore in northern Kazakhstan and near the border with Russia s Orenburg field see map Karachaganak is being developed by the Karachaganak Integrated Organization KIO a consortium led by Britain s British Gas BG and ENI Italy According to BG the field holds reserves of more than 2 4 billion barrels of oil and 16 Tcf of gas recoverable over the 40 year life of the project August 2004 oil and condensate production from Karachaganak averaged 210 000 bbl d representing 16 of total Kazakh production The consortium members aim to increase output from Karachaganak to 265 000 bbl d by the end of 2004 and to 500 000 bbl d by 2010 In previous years almost all of Karachaganak s crude oil production was processed at Russian facilities associated with the Orenburg field located just across the border In April 2003 a pipeline spur southward to Atyrau was completed that connects the Karachaganak field to Kazakhstan s primary export pipeline the Caspian Pipeline Consortium CPC project The new connection has enabled increased exports 50 000 bbl d in July 2004 from Karachaganak and has reduced the consortium members dependence on Russian buyers Kashagan The Kashagan field is located off the northern shore of the Caspian Sea near the city of Atyrau see Map 1 Although the field is still being appraised in June 2002 the consortium operating the field the Agip Kazakhstan North Caspian Operating Company Agip KCO formerly known as OKIOC estimated the field s recoverable reserves at 7 9 billion barrels of oil equivalent with further potential totaling 9 to 13 billion barrels using secondary recovery techniques gas injection for example Assuming proven crude oil reserves in the neighborhood of 8 billion barrels the Kashagan field alone would hold roughly the same amount of oil as Brazil South America s second largest oil producer Oil production is not expected to begin until 2008 at initial levels of 75 000 bbl d with subsequent levels of around 450 000 bbl d Costing approximately $29 billion to develop the Kashagan field has presented particular challenges for the developers Kashagan contains a high proportion of gas under very high pressure the oil contains large quantities of sulfur and the offshore platforms require construction that can withstand the extreme weather fluctuations in the northern Caspian Sea area In addition to the technological issues described above and a new tax structure introduced by the government this year two other issues remain unresolved Caspian ownership rights and export routes threaten Kashagan and Kazakhstan s other fields from reaching their full oil producing potential For several months the Kazakh government has expressed interest in buying British Gas BG s 16 7 share of the field A series of Fall 2004 meetings between the consortium and interested buyers have ended w Kazakhstan Kazakhstan is important to world energy markets because it has significant oil and natural gas reserves As foreign investment pours into the country s oil and natural gas sectors the landlocked Central Asian state is beginning to realize its enormous production potential With sufficient export options Kazakhstan could become a major world energy producer and exporter over the next decade Note Information contained in this report is the best available as of November 2004 and is subject to change GENERAL BACKGROUND Kazakhstan has the Caspian Sea region s largest recoverable crude oil reserves and its production accounts for approximately two thirds of the roughly 1 5 million barrels per day bbl d currently being produced in the region including regional oil producers Kazakhstan Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan Accordingly Kazakhstan has Central Asia s largest economy Kazakhstan s nominal gross domestic product GDP grew by 20 in 2003 to $29 0 billion resulting in a per capita GDP of $1 500 roughly comparable to Guatemala and Jordan This marked only the fifth consecutive year of significant economic growth in Kazakhstan since its independence in 1991 Economic growth in recent years has been propelled by Kazakhstan s growing petroleum industry The oil sector comprises roughly 55 of the country s state budget revenues Several economic research efforts conducted in 2002 and 2003 highlighted the growing danger of possible over reliance on the oil sector with some analysts predicting that without more investment into the country s non oil sectors Kazakhstan s economic capacity will be strained by 2007 thus stifling growth in the next decade In an effort to reduce Kazakhstan s exposure to price fluctuations for energy and commodities exports the government created the National Fund of Kazakhstan As of the end of 2003 the National Fund held $3 6 billion Kazakhstan s President Nursultan Nazarbaev has been involved in Kazakhstan s national politics since 1977 when he served as Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Kazakhstan In April 1990 he became interim president of the newly independent Republic of Kazakhstan and was later elected to the post in the country s first national elections held in December 1991 Nazarbaev was re elected in 1999 after a 1995 referendum extended his term and will be up for reelection again in 2006 The Kazakh executive branch was re shuffled in June 2003 when then Prime Minister Imanghaliy Tasmaghambetov resigned from his position A new Prime Minister Daniyal Akmetov has been appointed along with a new cabinet including numerous holdovers from the previous administration Parliamentary elections were held in 2004 during which the party led by Dariga Nazarbaev the president s daughter won 11 of the vote Opposition parties have alleged authorities committed election fraud and one month after the elections were over the speaker of the parliament resigned because he accused the election of being manipulated OIL Kazakhstan sits near the northeast portion of the Caspian Sea and claims most of the Sea s biggest known oil fields Kazakhstan s combined onshore and offshore proven hydrocarbon reserves have been estimated between 9 and 17 6 billion barrels comparable to OPEC members Algeria on the low end and Qatar on the high end The country is no longer a minor world oil exporter as it was during the late 1990s and it is poised to become an even more significant player in world oil markets over the next decade Kazakhstan produced approximately 1 0 million barrels per day bbl d of oil in 2003 and consumed just 165 000 bbl d resulting in net exports of 865 000 bbl d Analysts press reports and the Kazakh government estimate summer 2004 production at around 1 19 1 28 million bbl day Markets for exported Kazakh oil are growing rapidly and current infrastructure helps deliver oil to world markets at the Black Sea via Russia and at the Persian Gulf via swaps with Iran as well as some additional traffic northward to Russia via pipeline and rail Between 1999 and 2003 Kazakhstan s oil production grew year on year by approximately 14 resulting in a doubling roughly of oil production since independence see Fig 1 Conversely other major economic indicators declined markedly during the decade since independence including GDP and the production and consumption of natural gas coal and electricity see below Increased oil production has been the result of an influx of foreign investment into Kazakhstan s oil sector International projects have taken the form of joint ventures with Kazmunaigaz formerly Kazakhoil the national oil company as well as production sharing agreements PSAs and exploration field concessions Independent analysts expect production levels of 4 million bbl d and the Kazakh government estimates production levels of around 8 million bbl d by 2020 Most of this growth will come from three enormous fields Tengiz Karachaganak and Kashagan In June 2003 the government of Kazakhstan announced a new Caspian Sea development program which called for new offshore blocks to be auctioned beginning in 2004 However in the last year the government has introduced new restrictions to new production sharing agreements PSAs First the government owned oil and gas company KazMunaiGaz will own at least half of any PSA and act as contractor in all offshore PSAs to be concluded in Kazakhstan Also the introduction of a new tax structure in January 2004 included a so called rent tax on exports a progressive tax that increases as oil prices grow The new amendment to Kazakhstan s tax law has raised the government s share of oil income to a range of 65 to 85 percent and it has removed a clause guaranteeing investors a static tax rate throughout the duration of the contract The new structure also includes an excess profit tax and a minimal governmental share of oil to be produced under new PSAs Tengiz The Tengiz field is located in the swamplands along the northeast shores of the Caspian Sea see Map 2 Recoverable crude oil reserves have been estimated at 6 9 billion barrels by consortium member ChevronTexaco Tengiz has been developed by the Tengizchevroil TCO joint venture ChevronTexaco 50 ExxonMobil 25 Kazmunaigaz 20 LukArco 5 since 1993 and in 2002 the consortium produced 290 000 bbl d or approximately 35 of Kazakhstan s daily production In January 2003 after contentious negotiations with the government of Kazakhstan the TCO consortium members initiated a $3 billion expansion project designed to boost production to approximately 450 000 bbl d by 2006 According to ChevronTexaco Tengiz could potentially produce 700 000 bbl d by the end of the decade Approximately 271 000 bbl d were sent from the Tengiz field through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium CPC project to the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk see Map 2 Karachaganak The Karachaganak oil and gas condensate field is located onshore in northern Kazakhstan and near the border with Russia s Orenburg field see map Karachaganak is being developed by the Karachaganak Integrated Organization KIO a consortium led by Britain s British Gas BG and ENI Italy According to BG the field holds reserves of more than 2 4 billion barrels of oil and 16 Tcf of gas recoverable over the 40 year life of the project August 2004 oil and condensate production from Karachaganak averaged 210 000 bbl d representing 16 of total Kazakh production The consortium members aim to increase output from Karachaganak to 265 000 bbl d by the end of 2004 and to 500 000 bbl d by 2010 In previous years almost all of Karachaganak s crude oil production was processed at Russian facilities associated with the Orenburg field located just across the border In April 2003 a pipeline spur southward to Atyrau was completed that connects the Karachaganak field to Kazakhstan s primary export pipeline the Caspian Pipeline Consortium CPC project The new connection has enabled increased exports 50 000 bbl d in July 2004 from Karachaganak and has reduced the consortium members dependence on Russian buyers Kashagan The Kashagan field is located off the northern shore of the Caspian Sea near the city of Atyrau see Map 1 Although the field is still being appraised in June 2002 the consortium operating the field the Agip Kazakhstan North Caspian Operating Company Agip KCO formerly known as OKIOC estimated the field s recoverable reserves at 7 9 billion barrels of oil equivalent with further potential totaling 9 to 13 billion barrels using secondary recovery techniques gas injection for example Assuming proven crude oil reserves in the neighborhood of 8 billion barrels the Kashagan field alone would hold roughly the same amount of oil as Brazil South America s second largest oil producer Oil production is not expected to begin until 2008 at initial levels of 75 000 bbl d with subsequent levels of around 450 000 bbl d Costing approximately $29 billion to develop the Kashagan field has presented particular challenges for the developers Kashagan contains a high proportion of gas under very high pressure the oil contains large quantities of sulfur and the offshore platforms require construction that can withstand the extreme weather fluctuations in the northern Caspian Sea area In addition to the technological issues described above and a new tax structure introduced by the government this year two other issues remain unresolved Caspian ownership rights and export routes threaten Kashagan and Kazakhstan s other fields from reaching their full oil producing potential For several months the Kazakh government has expressed interest in buying British Gas BG s 16 7 share of the field A series of Fall 2004 meetings between the consortium and interested buyers have ended w

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